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In a typical TikTok video,cerita lucah suami isteri Jenna Libman extols the virtues of a $30 Halara exercise dress, praising how easy it makes going to the bathroom, from her living room studio. Creators like her could be collateral damage in Trump's escalating trade war with China, with huge implications for the entire TikTok Shop creator economy, but she isn't scared.

Precarity is the name of the game when building a business that hinges entirely upon an algorithm you can’t control. And that's how TikTok Shop has felt over the past year, with ban rumors, an actual ban, and a resurrection. Now, the trade war is reaching new heights in the U.S. — including the TikTok Shop. The de minimis exemption— a once-little-known rule that allows packages worth less than $800 to enter the U.S. tax-free — was pulled, and the President has implemented new global tariffs. Chinese goods could face tariffs as high as 245 percent, placing platforms like Shein, Temu, and TikTok Shop front and center.

So, can an economy built on impulse buys survive higher prices? The creators we talked to don't seem very pressed. 

Scroll through TikTok and you might find some commenters complaining about higher prices. You'll also find sellers in China trying to convince viewers that they're selling Lululemon leggings for $7. But the creators actually making money from TikTok Shop commissions are pretty quiet.

Libman, a creator who has been producing user-generated content (UGC) for five years, told Mashable that the tariffs, de minimis exemption, and the general economic chaos of 2025 don't worry her too much. She says none of these changes feel long-term.

"I think this is so temporary and it's not the time to pivot or freak out yet," she told Mashable. "In this business, if you're not prepared for ups and downs, you're in the wrong business. And at the same time, it is what it is. Things will ebb and flow naturally, so I just don't feel like they need to make a change right now." 

She wasn't ever personally worried about the TikTok ban and says this, too, shall pass. "And if it even happens, like let's say even if they actually do ban it. There's going to be a workaround in some way or the market will just pivot to something else. And so then we just stand by and wait for the next pivot."

What is the de minimis exemption?

President Donald Trump slashed the de minimis exception for shipments from China starting May 2 — meaning sellers on TikTok Shop will have to face steep tariffs of 120 percent (or a $100 "per postal item" charge, which increases to $200 on June 1). According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, 4 million shipments come into the U.S. every daythat rely on the de minimis exemption. President Trump has argued that Chinese-based shippers use the de minimis exemption to ship illicit substances like fentanyl in low-value packages. 

Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, like Connecticut Democratic Representative Rosa DeLauro, agree that a reform on the de minimis provision could slow the spread of drug trafficking in the U.S. But drug traffickers aren't the only people being affected by the elimination of the exemption — it will likely make goods more expensive for everyday Americans. According to trade analyst research reported by The New York Times, "eliminating the provision entirely would cost Americans between $11 billion and $13 billion, and those higher costs would disproportionately hurt lower-income and minority households."

According to Reuters, 90 percent of all packages that enter the U.S. fall under the de minimis exception, and more than 60 percent of those packages come from China.

The stakes for TikTok Shop

On April 7, TikTok Shop sent an email to its retailers — everyone from folks who sell DIY t-shirts on the site to big businesses who sell makeup online. The email detailed what the de minimis exemption is, what changed, what it means for them, and what happens now. 

"When the de minimis exemption is removed for a country's goods, duties will be applicable to all impacted shipments regardless of value, and additional supporting documentation may be required to import, previously exempt, goods into the US," TikTok shop said in its email to retailers. "Sellers should continue to ensure they are familiar with all requirements for importing goods into the US. We are actively monitoring these developments and will work to keep you informed."

TikTok Shop relies on ultra-low-cost imports to power viral impulse buying — and if those imports are no longer ultra-low, it's easy to see how that might impact its business model. Still, there were well over 500,000 sellers on TikTok Shop in 2024, according to Sprout Social. Moreover, 37 percent of Americans under 60 years old have purchased something on TikTok Shop, and 36 percent of direct purchases on social media were on TikTok, in comparison to Instagram or Facebook.

We don't know exactly how many of those businesses rely on Chinese imports, but news reports from the time TikTok Shop startedfound that it was full of counterfeit items from other countries, including China.

But even as prices increase, the elimination of the de minimis exemption is unlikely to kill TikTok Shop completely. As Kimber Maderazzo, Pepperdine Graziadio Business School professor and former Proactiv executive, told Glossy, "consumers love shopping" on places like TikTok Shop so much that it has changed their shopping behavior to the core.

How the de minimis exemption could affect UGC creators and influencers 

Beyond people and businesses who actually sell their products on TikTok Shop, there's another industry that relies on its success: UGC creators. 

"Tariffs on platforms like TikTok Shop don’t just impact product pricing, they ripple through the entire creator economy," Captiv8 Co-Founder and CEO Krishna Subramanian told Mashable. "Many influencers aren’t just promoting products; they are the small businesses, often relying on affordable overseas manufacturing to run lean DTC brands. If tariffs drive up costs, some creators may need to rethink pricing or product strategy, but creators are uniquely agile. They’ve built loyal communities, and that direct connection gives them room to adapt faster than traditional retailers."

In general, Subramanian said that these tariffs will introduce "some short-term complexity," but also have the opportunity to "reinforce the long-term value of the influencer ecosystem." Subramanian added, "It’s decentralized, adaptive, and built on real human connection, which is exactly what brands need when market conditions are in flux."

If you have 1,000 followers on TikTok, you can make money from TikTok Shop. All you have to do is promote or generally talk about an item in a video, link to it through TikTok Shop, and, there you go, you get a commission for each sale. Take Brandy Leigh, a 50-year-old mother of six in Indiana, who told End Of Worldthat she started making UGC content for TikTok when she had 1,000 followers but quickly earned more than 30,000 followers and $95,000 in commissions. It's an attractive option for folks who want to make passive income from their homes. 

The de minimis exemption could mean fewer purchases on TikTok Shop. Ash, a UGC creator on TikTok at @shleystagram, told Mashable over DM that she is "not too worried about" the effect the tariffs might have on her job stability, because "TikTok Shop isn't the main contributor to my income at this point in time." And that's true for many influencers and content creators — it's a side hustle, not the main show.

"I think it just brings a lot of uncertainty," she said. "I never want to put all of my eggs in one basket because there’s a lot of unknowns right now."

Some TikTok Shop creators also earn revenue from brand deals. Of course, companies that are losing money on other fronts will likely spend less money on marketing. However, the marketing funds they do spend might lean more towards influencer partnerships than other forms of marketing. That means creators could see more revenue from brand deals if we enter a recession.

Layla Revis, the Vice President of Social, Content, and Brand at Sprout Social, told Mashable that influencers play an "invaluable role" as "trusted advocates" who are "on the front lines of the consumer experience." Because of this, "I suspect we will see brands lean into influencer partnerships during this time," Revis said.

Beyond that, the de minimis exemption and the tariffs in general have caused economic distress across the world. In the U.S., farmers are struggling. All my favorite bathroom cabinet must-haves (toilet paper, eye makeup, cigars) might be hit with retaliatory tariffs from the European Union. The tariffs also have an outsize effect on tech— including the upcoming Switch 2. And a looming economic recession does pose a moral conundrum for some creators. Should they be hawking impulse buys on TikTok at a time like this?

"It absolutely is something I am taking into consideration when I think about what products I want to promote to my audience," Ash said. "If I wouldn’t spend my own money on the product, I will politely decline any offers from brands that reach out for TikTok Shop collaborations. But even going forward, the economy is rough right now, and so unpredictable. Prices are raising on basically everything and it’s something I stress about, and I’m sure others can relate to that! So much that I’ve decided going forward I want to limit my TikTok Shop posts because I never want to pressure anyone who sees my videos that they 'need' to buy something."

Despite the tariffs and de minimis exemption, ultra-cheap, fast e-commerce will still exist, and the creator economy will shift accordingly. You might just have to replace those viral $2 slippers with a pair that costs $8 instead.