Set as Homepage - Add to Favorites

日韩欧美成人一区二区三区免费-日韩欧美成人免费中文字幕-日韩欧美成人免费观看-日韩欧美成人免-日韩欧美不卡一区-日韩欧美爱情中文字幕在线

【??t nhau tr?c ti?p】How the 'L.A. Times' poll was the only one to predict a Trump win

A Donald Trump presidency has arrived a possibility almost no major pollster saw coming. Except the Los Angeles Times.

The ??t nhau tr?c ti?pUSC Dornsife/L.A. TimesDaybreak poll predicted what pretty much everyone else saw as a distant and unlikely reality. Leading into Election Day, the poll was predicting a Trump win.

SEE ALSO:Nearly half of Americans didn't vote — not even for Harambe


You May Also Like

That made it a lone wolf, as most other pollsters predicted a Hillary Clinton win. A week before the election, Trump's lead was already solid in the L.A. Timespoll.

And his lead didn't waver much in the following days, as the poll continued to forecast a Trump presidency.

So what about all the other outlets, from CNN to the New York Times? What did they miss that the L.A. Times didn't?

To put it simply: a collection of data that most other polls never looked at, according to an expert.

Mashable Trend Report Decode what’s viral, what’s next, and what it all means. Sign up for Mashable’s weekly Trend Report newsletter. By clicking Sign Me Up, you confirm you are 16+ and agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Thanks for signing up!

The USC/LATpoll measured a voter's faith in a candidate on a 1-100 scale, something not seen in most other polls giving limited choices. A day ahead of Trump's victory, Dan Schnur wrote a Timesop-ed that explained this crucial difference.

"Whereas most polls simply ask voters to choose between alternatives," Schnur wrote, "the Daybreak poll attempts to determine the intensity of voter preferences by asking how committed a respondent is to his or her candidate (on a scale of 1 to 100)."

Measuring the actual level of commitment voters have is essential, according to Schnur.

"Few voters shift their support on an absolute basis from total and complete certainty for one candidate to equally unequivocal certainty for the other," he wrote, adding that most voters change their minds gradually.

This is why it's important to gauge voters' opinions over time, rather than using the "traditional all-or-nothing surveys" that exist in many polls, Schnur said.

People have explained away how everyone could've been so wrong about Trump's victory with other reasons, too. Some pollsters have suggested demographics were relied on too much in predicting election results, while others said the key voting bloc of working class white voters wasn't polled enough.

Original image replaced with Mashable logoOriginal image has been replaced. Credit: Mashable

And some said it was just denial, from major media and others who just couldn't fathom Trump winning.

“Most of the press and folks in DC were science deniers when it came to this election,” Curt Anderson, a pro-Trump super PAC adviser, told Politico. “Even in the face of polls that showed it very close, they all said that Trump had almost no chance. It was because they couldn’t imagine it happening ... they are in a bubble, and that bubble has just been burst."Interestingly, the editorial Schnur wrote ahead of the election called out the backlash the Daybreak poll received from a wide swath of politicos. With the poll predicting a Trump win, Schnur said analysts grew critical of it, something he said reflected personal political views rather than objective analysis.

"The most appropriate response to the Daybreak poll should not be to dismiss it because it reveals something unfamiliar and potentially disagreeable, but rather to study it and learn from it so the science of public opinion research can move forward," Schnur wrote.

0.1201s , 9945.2578125 kb

Copyright © 2025 Powered by 【??t nhau tr?c ti?p】How the 'L.A. Times' poll was the only one to predict a Trump win,Public Opinion Flash  

Sitemap

Top 主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲日产一线二线三线精华液 | 熟女少妇丰满一区二区 | 国产成视频在线观看 | 国产欧美精品一区二区三区四 | 欧美一区a | 无码成人专区在线观看 | 日韩亚洲自拍黄色在线免费 | 国产三级成人不卡在线观看 | 青春草国产成人精品久久 | 波多野结衣免费视频观看 | 欧美视频在线免费观看 | 草色噜噜噜AV在线观看香蕉 | 大片免免费观看视频播放器在线观看 | 中文乱码字幕无线观看2024 | 国产一区二区丝袜高跟鞋 | 日韩福利在线 | 欧美丰满极品少妇无码 | 老熟妇仑乱一区二区视頻 | 成网站在线观看人免费 | 性一交一乱一交A片久久四色 | 久久久久亚洲av综合波多野结衣 | 日本熟妇厨房xxxxx乱 | 亚洲成av人片在线观看无码 | 精品人妻无码一区二区三区蜜桃一 | 97精品人妻酒店综合大胆无码 | 亚洲av无码成人网站国产 | 色情无码视频无码小说 | 91国内小视频在线 | 日韩精品综合 | 国产精品高潮呻吟AV久久床戏 | 高潮爽到爆好爽无码喷水视频 | 高清有码国产一区二区 | 伊人网大 | 囯产精品高清三级一区 | 日本添阴视频 | 精品亚洲a∨无码一区二区三区 | 久久精品影院一区二区三区 | 亚洲国产成人在线观看网站 | 亚洲精品制服丝袜四区 | 四虎影视在线影院在线观看免费视频 | 亚洲色大成网站www久久 |